The summer projections for Rogue River flows call for a river even bonier than last year, and water managers hope to avoid large salmon die-offs that have occurred in drought years in the past.

“If we get the hot dry summer it’s going to be really rough,” said Dan Van Dyke, district fisheries biologist for the Oregon Department of Fish and Wildlife in Central Point. “We always lose a few fish. There’s a chance we could have a sizable loss this year.”

The draft report for management of Lost Creek and Applegate dams was released by the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers last week, and the public may comment on the management plan.

The river, on average, will be 100 to 200 cubic feet per second lower than a year ago. Not only are dam outflows projected to be lower, the tributaries will also be smaller this year because of inadequate snowpack, and from a 2013 calendar year that was the driest on record.

As for the chinook salmon, the ODFW is ready to use extra water during late May and June to help the springers get upriver. Because Lost Creek Reservoir filled up, that water is available even in a potential drought year. Already ODFW augmented dam outflows temporarily last week when hot weather brought water temperatures up. ODFW tries to keep temperatures at 66 degrees at Agness on the lower Rogue River.

“We would be in dire straits if we had not filled,” said Jim Buck, operations manager for the reservoirs.

Salmon are at higher risk for gill disease when river temperatures rise above 70 degrees, and the lower the river level, the higher the temperature. Die-offs of more than 50 percent occurred in 1992 and 1994, killing upwards of 70,000 adult chinook salmon. In the last drought in 2001, about 14,000 spring and fall chinook died, according to the ODFW.

Mortality has been minimal since then, according to ODFW.

The outlook is rosier for people floating the river.

Erik Weiseth of Orange Torpedo Trips in Merlin said Rogue flows below 1,500 cfs, expected for much of the summer after July 1, should pose no problem for inflatable rafts on the Rogue.

“It’ll be interesting; but that’s a totally manageable flow,” Weiseth said.