Be tsunami ready: New research shows water may surge farther than originally expected
Published 5:00 pm Wednesday, June 12, 2013
Theres a new map in your future.
And, while its a colorful map, those colors primarily orange, yellow and a little green carry a message.
Pay attention: It could be a matter of life and death.
Revised maps showing the latest research in the tsunami inundation zone are coming to Clatsop County beginning June 18. They will be the focus of interest in four tsunami readiness rallies planned along the North Coast from June 20 to June 29 (see accompanying information box).
Based on updated research begun in 2009, the new tsunami maps give scientists a more detailed look at the topography of Astoria, Warrenton, Gearhart, Seaside and Cannon Beach to the south.
Lidar sees underground
The maps are among several created by the geologists and scientists in the state Department of Geology and Mineral Industries for the entire Oregon Coast through lidar technology. Lidar uses ultraviolet or infrared light to display underground geological formations such as ancient streambeds or faults.
Working with a four-year grant from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, the DOGAMI scientists have worked their way from the southern Oregon Coast and are wrapping up their study on the North Coast.
They have learned that every community is different in its knowledge about tsunamis and its preparation for survival.
The Nehalem/Rockaway area has an active mindset; its a prime example of an active local citizenry, said Rachel Lyles Smith, the project operations manager for DOGAMI.
And then we have communities along the coast that have heard nothing about tsunamis.
In South Clatsop County, Cannon Beach residents have more awareness because the town has become the go-to community to begin pilot research projects, Smith said.
It has a leg up on communities that didnt know they had a problem, she added.
Seaside is threatened
While the new maps dont show much change for Cannon Beach, in Seaside there appears to be a very significant distant tsunami threat that puts many people at risk, Smith said.
A distant tsunami is the result of a wave washing onshore after an earthquake has occurred elsewhere, such as in Alaska or Japan. While the size of the waves reaching Seaside could vary, depending on the magnitude and location of a distant earthquake, in the worst-case scenario portrayed on the new tsunami map, surges could reach up to and well past Wahanna Road.
Water would overtake 12th Avenue east of Wahanna, past where 12th becomes Ocean Avenue. Water also is expected on Broadway east of the intersection with Wahanna, according to the map.
Shore Terrace would feel the effects of the surge from a distant tsunami, as well as Lewis & Clark Road, just west of Thompson Falls Drive.
The Seaside Fire Department and the Seaside Municipal Airport also would be inundated in a worst-case distant tsunami. All of the schools, except Seaside Heights Elementary, would be surrounded by water.
Worst-case locally
But in the worst-case scenario for a local tsunami when a Cascadia earthquake occurs just 50 to 75 miles offshore even Seaside Heights and some property to the east of the school would be inundated, according to the new maps. The same is true for Providence Seaside Hospital.
Neighborhoods on Forest Drive, Skyline Drive and Hillside Loop also would be affected in a worst-case situation, and water would reach significantly east of Thompson Falls Drive, North Fork Road and quite a distance along Lewis & Clark Road.
Evacuation assembly areas have been designated at the east end of Huckleberry Drive, on Broadway at Hilltop Drive, at the east end of Skyline Drive, in the Thompson Falls area and at the east end of Royal View Drive, which is connected to Lewis & Clark Road.
City Council reaction
There was little discussion about the specific map during a Seaside City Council meeting Monday night. Although the new map hasnt been released to the public, Smith, who presented information about the rallies, distributed brochures to the City Council that will be given out at that time. The brochures contain the new map.
The map also was released early to the Seaside Signal.
While examining the map, City Councilor Randy Frank noticed a change.
I used to be in a safe zone, he said. Now its not so safe.
Mayor Don Larson also noticed something different.
Im looking at a trail I would have used to evacuate. Now, it looks like I dont have that many minutes. Its in the orange.
The orange indicates an inundation from a distant tsunami.
Few options in Gearhart
But if the Seaside City Council noticed changes, the Gearhart City Council last week learned from Smith that residents have almost no place to run.
In fact, Gearhart has something that no other coastal town has: an optional high ground assembly area.
Its a stretch of higher ground at the Gearhart Golf Links that, in 95 percent of the tsunamis, stays dry. It might stay dry in a large tsunami, but in an extra, extra large tsunami where the magnitude of the Cascadia earthquake reaches 9.1 even that wouldnt be available, Smith said.
The new tsunami map for Gearhart, shows that optional assembly point as a crosshatched strip running along either side of the golf course and bordered by Gearhart Lane and Highlands Lane.
But, overall, Gearhart doesnt really have any good options for high ground, Smith told the Gearhart City Council last week.
The city of Gearhart is really at a disadvantage, Smith said.
In a distant tsunami, water would surge up to U.S. Highway 101 south of Fifth Street, surrounding Gearhart Elementary School. Water also is expected to follow Neacoxie Creek throughout town, north to Gearhart Lane.
The worst case or an extra-extra large tsunami, which would occur after a magnitude 9.1 earthquake is expected to stretch way beyond U.S. Highway 101, past the end of Salminen Road, where the citys water tank is located.
Another narrow crosshatched optional high ground strip runs east of Dooley Lane north beyond East Pine Lane, but that strip is only a potential oasis in the middle of a tsunami sea. And thats only in a large tsunami, not in the worst case, Smith pointed out.
After listening to Smith, City Councilor Al Carder asked her what the likelihood would be that someone would reach the optional area near the golf course.
If theyre on the west side of the Neacoxie, their access and egress is going to be gone, Carder said. Were toast. Were toast.
Smith said she understood Carders concern.
Yes, I cant sugarcoat it, she said. Its dire if (the tsunami) is an XXL. There will be a lot of fatalities in this area.
Hospitals affected
Asked by City Councilor Joy Sigler how Columbia Memorial and Providence Seaside hospitals would fare in a local tsunami, Smith said they both would be affected.
Astoria definitely will be affected, said Smith, who noted that a ring of water would form around the city in a local tsunami. The city may be challenged by landslides, she added.
Mayor Dianne Widdop said that, after hearing earlier about the new maps and what they predicted for Gearhart, she couldnt sleep that night.
I hope everyone will be able to sleep tonight, she said.
Brochures displaying the new tsunami maps and suggested assembly points and ways to prepare for tsunamis will be distributed throughout Gearhart, Smith said. Evacuation signs also will be posted throughout town.
Councilor Dan Jesse also urged those attending the meeting to create a CERT group in Gearhart. The Community Emergency Response Team assists first responders in providing help in local emergencies.
Its going to have to come from you folks; the city is not going to be able to help much, said Jesse, who is a member of CERT in the Lewis and Clark area.
Lifesaving rallies
A countywide effort to start CERT groups in local cities is underway, said Lianne Thompson, who is the outreach coordinator for the Department of Geology and Mineral Industries and who attended the Gearhart and Seaside meetings.
Designed to help people become more aware of where a tsunami might reach them and how they can prepare for it, the readiness rallies will provide an opportunity to talk to scientists, view the new maps and ask questions. Local emergency personnel will discuss evacuation routes and survival tools.
Our presentation isnt a scare tactic, Smith said. Its about how to save your life. You can take a map, make a plan, know your plan and practice your plan.
Those attending the rallies in South Clatsop County may not be too surprised at the new orange and yellow lines, indicating where a distant and local tsunami might reach, Smith said.
But those in Warrenton may be surprised at how far inland the water might go.
Astoria will probably be the most surprised, Smith added. They may have thought they never had a problem before, but these maps will challenge their perception.