Three ingredients determine the outcome of a political campaign. They are money, organization and the candidate.

Of these factors, a good candidate is the rarest commodity. Think Barack Obama.

In the U.S. Senate race between incumbent Sen. Gordon Smith and challenger Jeff Merkley, Smith will have a considerable money advantage. Unless I’m missing something, neither candidate has an organization that does much more than manage the candidate’s movements. If Merkley benefits from voter turn-out, that will be generated by labor unions and the Barack Obama campaign’s organization. The last Oregon politician who maintained a statewide organization was Sen. Mark Hatfield.

So how do Smith and Merkley compare as candidates? Merkley is not an electric personality. Smith conveys more of a presence. When I interviewed Merkley for KMUN’s After Deadline show that will air Friday, I discovered that he has gained the ability to get right to the point.

Motivation matters. How badly does a candidate want it? Think Ron Wyden. In his first campaign – in the 1980 Democratic primary against Congressman Bob Duncan – Wyden walked the length of the Rose Parade wearing a sandwich board that proclaimed “I’m Ron and I’m running.” Wyden also pulled off a come-from-behind victory over Smith in the 1996 Senate campaign. He did it by working harder than Smith.

It’s not clear whether Gordon Smith is seeking another term in the Senate for himself or for the Republican Party. Smith’s ambivalence is showing in some recent events. And that leads to a by-product of a candidate’s strength or weakness. To defeat an incumbent, a challenger needs the incumbent to cooperate in his own defeat. In chess, that is called waiting for your opponent to make a mistake. (Think Bob Packwood’s 1968 upset victory against Sen. Wayne Morse.)

Smith has been uncharacteristically sloppy in recent weeks. First was his statement about gay marriage in which he seemed to be justifying Mormon polygamy before it was outlawed in Utah. Then Smith tried to couple his image with that of Barack Obama, to which Obama objected. As recently as July 4, Smith pulled a boner.To defeat a Senate incumbent, the incumbent must cooperate in his own demise. After speaking at an Oregon Farm Bureau event, the senator attacked the Rainy Day Fund that House Speaker Merkley helped move through the 2009 Oregon Legislature. Smith said the kicker took money from hard-working Oregon businesses.

The kicker was viewed by Republicans and Democrats as one of the Legislature’s great accomplishments. It passed with bipartisan support. Smith’s perception that Oregon businesses lost money when the corporate kicker was redirected into the Rainy Day Fund is most curious. The great majority of the corporate kicker goes to out-of-state corporate headquarters, not to Oregon-headquartered businesses.

When we show visitors through our building, they are often surprised to learn that we have a printing press. Of course, I’m surprised that they are surprised. I wonder where they thought we were printed. In Portland?

We do have a press, and I have called it our geriatric. It’s foundation units date to 1970. Over the past decade, we have added units as well as a new motor. The key to our press’ longevity is maintenance. For some 20 years ending in 1988, Ken Bue was our mechanical superintendent and he inculcated a pressroom culture of meticulous attention to detail.

Pressroom experts from around the nation have remarked on the high quality of color off our press.

Jim Stanovich, our pressroom foreman, was a Ken Bue disciple. One week ago a compensating roller jammed early in the run. That caused a web of newsprint to break. As a result, the crew could not obtain good color registration. After some two hours of repair work, Stanovich unjammed the compensator. It was a tense moment. The crew’s quiet tenacity prevailed.

– S.A.F.