An uneducated guess at the local economy

Published 4:00 pm Thursday, January 31, 2008

After our infamous December storm, in January our nation was greeted with more dismal information about the economy.

News reports indicate that the West Coast isn’t as bad off as the rest of the country, and the Portland-Metro area is holding firm in many areas; real estate values to name one.

What does that mean for the North Coast? I’d love to proffer an answer, but here’s where I admit I’m no economist. An even more painful admission is that Economics was the college course in which I received the worst grade of my higher education career. (All those charts and graphs boggled my math-challenged mind.)

Frustrated by the lack of available evidence beyond real estate sales numbers, employment reports and some anecdotal evidence, I’m hard-pressed to put forth an informed statement about the North Coast economy relative to the rest of the country. I can, however, make some observations as “food for thought,” if nothing else.

Is it possible that as metro Portland/Seattle people become more frugal with a buck that vacationing to the Oregon Coast might be more palatable than more far-ranging travel?

If the plane ticket prices for a trip to Europe won’t kill you, the exchange rate will. Maybe a weeklong adventure to our coastal paradise will be viewed as a veritable vacation bargain. Europeans may flock here to benefit from the strong buying power of their Euros.

A little marketing might go a long way toward reminding visitors that after the storm, our coast is clear.

Or, consider that Georgia-Pacific, Clatsop County’s largest employer, makes consumable items such as toilet paper and paper towels. Yes, the price of these items will rise with higher transportation and raw materials costs. Does that mean people will quit using them? Unlikely!

On the flip side, if you’re a business owner, are you finding your collections calls are on the rise? It might be an indicator that the trickle down affect of fewer dollars swirling around will require some belt-tightening.

Now that I’ve revealed that economics isn’t my strong suit, rest assured that in the next few months we’ll be seeking indicators we can trend over time, with a goal of presenting meaningful information about our local economy.

Reader input is welcome.